CONCERNING US MARINES AND OKINAWA:

I have two boys in the Army, one a 1st LT who is XO of a 1st Armored
Div company based in the Basra (Shiia) area, complete with his Ranger
Tab. The other is a ROTC cadet at Stanford who just finished up "jump
school" (parachute) at Ft. Benning..

I say this purely in the spirit of full disclosure. My comments may
seem anti-Marine. They are not, or certainly are not intended to be pro-Army.

We have too many Marines on Okinawa. Top Marines based at PACOM have
told me -- not for attribution -- that the big Marine force on
Okinawa has virtually nothing to do with operational issues. It is
budgetary. Japan picks up most of the bill. I've been briefed on war
plan scenarios for the Korean Peninsula. The Marines on Okinawa have
virtually no role.

If anyone wants to dispute that,... "bring it on..." A war on the
Korean Peninsula would be horrific, but it would be won by the US-ROK
alliance very quickly. The ROK ground forces are among the best in
the world. The US naval and air forces based in Japan would overwhelm
North Korea,. The numbers of dead of would be awful; North Korea has
the ability to infllict, for a short time, terrible death and destruction.

But North Korea would quickly lose, and the US Marines on Okinawa
would play virtually no role in the victory, not because they are
incapable, but because the war plans simply do not include them, at
least not in the way they are often portrayed.

Tthe US Marines on Okinawa would have virtually no role in the
outcome of a war that would be determined by: a) North Korea's
inherent weakness; b) the ROK's very capable ground forces that are
backed by a strong economy and a dedicated and determined US ally; c)
the ability of the US to quickly cut supply lines for any DPRK forces
that move south; and,very importantly d) the very likely scenario
that neither China, nor Russia, would intervene to back up the DPRK,

The US Marines on Okinawa would play virtually no role in any such conflict.

Should there be US Marines in/on Japan? Absolutely. But the number
there now, and the location and configuration, is long overdue for
discussion, both between the US and Japan, and (perhaps the biggest
problem) between the US Marines and the US Air Force. The wars
between these two branches make some actual wars seem peaceful. It is
ridiculous, and everyone from Kurt Campbell to Chip Gregson knows it.

I'm not sure General Rice, the current commander of USFJ, knows it,
but he is about to find out, because the next Japanese Cabinet, which
will be led by the DPJ, will not accept building a replacement
facility on Okinawa in place of a closed Futenma. The LDP could/would
not do it for 14 years (the rape that precipitated the whole debate
took place in 1995, and was so serious that General Richard Meyers
--- then chief of US Forces Japan (USFJ) was almost relieved of his
command, and and almost made a sacrificial lamb. (He then went on to
become Chairman of the Joint Chiefs -- overseeing the disastrous Iraq
war).... If the LDP could not get the Futenma facility replaced, what
in the world would lead anyone to think the DPJ -- which has promised
not to do it -- would do it?

The Marine helicopters now at Futenma should move up to the US Air
Force base at Kadena. Anyone who has ever been at Kadena knows there
is plenty of space. The Air Force and the Marines will give their
mutual silly arguments that it is dangerous to have choppers and Air
Force planes close by. Gee: I wonder how our aircraft carriers
manage these problems.

There is a legitimate issue; If an East Asia crisis were to develop,
Kadena would be over-crowded because of the necessary force build-up.
The solution? Keep Futenma open as a joint UN-Japan base, and move
the US Marine helicopters to Kadena. Write a "side -letter" between
the the US and Japan that, in the event of a regional crisis, the US
Marine helicopters could return to Futenma. This would require some
changes in the US-Japan Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), but
nothing that couldn't be done 1-2-3 if the president and prime
minister became involved.

This is not a new idea, and it certainly is not my idea. It first
arose more than a decade ago. Then Sec Def William Cohen knew about
the idea, as did Kurt Campbell. Neither was willing/able to resolve
the dispute between the US Air Force and the Marines.

The result has been 14 years of endless negotiations. Futenma remains
open, and virtually nothing has been done to build a new facility,

The situation now is very dangerous: The Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ), which all know will soon take control of the government after
the late-August elections, will not allow a Futenma replacement
facility on Okinawa. (Somewhere else in Japan? Possible... But not
Okinawa...) That means the US will leave Futenma, move the Marine
helicopters to Kadena, but refuse to pay for the huge environmental
clean up costs involving closing Futenma. Japan will then be
expected to pay upwards of $6 billion for the new Marine facilities
on Guam (Japan seems committed to do thtat), and also have to foot
the bill for cleaning up Futenma. The Americans will be angry; the
Japanese will be angry. The alliance will suffer. Why? All because
the US Air Force and US Marines won't work together, and because
Tokyo and Okinawa -- nominally part of the same country -- won't
work together.

As for the Marines: My boys might not like me to write this, but: the
Marines are the best. But let's stop the lying that they are on
Okinawa because of a Korean peninsula scenario. The war plans --- I
repeat, i''ve been briefed (though never shown anything in writing,
and the briefings were delivered informally in hotel bars by very
senior people -- hotel bars -- often the best places to be briefed.
The Marines are planned to play virtually no role. The war would
break out quickly. Marine supplies would take too long to arrive. The
ROK ground troops, and the US Navy-based and Air Force-based air
capabilities would end the war very, very quickly.

The US Marines are so heavily based on Okinawa for one reason:
Budget. Japan picks up most of the bill. War plans for the Korean
Peninsula virtually do not include the US Marines.

But Marines are the best, the bravest, the toughest, and the best
prepared. (I figure I better exaggerate a little just to ward off any
accusations of anti-Marine sentiment on my part...)

Marines are key because having them forward deployed -- including
some in Japan -- is critical to the indispensable role the US plays
(or should play) as guarantor of global peace and stability.

In that regard, some US Marine presence is really necessary in
Japan... but not necessarily Okinawa.

The US Marine presence on Okinawa is too heavy; it needs to be
reduced. Moving a big portion to Guam of the current US Marine
presence in Japan will not significantly alter the overall US role
and capability in the world. The key to the US presence in Asia is
the Kadena Air Force base on Okinawa, and the Yokosuka naval base,
which is the single foreign location the in the world that the US
home-ports a an aircraft carrier task force.

The DPJ is already showing very significant signs of continuity in
the US-Japan defense alliance. Lots of factors are play in this, not
the least of which is that Ichiro Ozawa (a pro-American, though not a
"do whatever the US says" kind of guy) is still running the DPJ, and
Yukio Hatoyama -- an ally of Ozawa, is a much tougher, more realistic
thinker on defense issues than most people realize.

The DPJ will win the upcoming election, big-time. The DPJ will try to
prove itself able to manage the US-Japan relationship, and will try
to show that it has a realistic perspective (if considerably
different than the LDP) on defense issues. But the one issue the DPJ
will not compromise on is a Futenma replacement facility.

Kurt Campbell and General Gregson better realize this sooner, rather
than later, and find a win-win- solution for both countries.

PETER ENNIS
Editor
The Oriental Economist