William Stonehill reports that, "A move is on in the US Congress to
see if a version of the F22 can be exported to Japan. Export of this
advanced fighter aircraft is banned under US law."

I doubt that the legal prohibition is a serious obstacle in itself,
but there are others more significant. Politically, Defense Secretary
Gates is trying to kill the F-22 production in the United States and
will surely oppose any move to keep production going for Japan. But
there are what I regard as more substantial reasons to question the
feasibility and desirability of purchasing the F-22 as well.

I say this recognizing very well the strength of Japanese desire for
the aircraft. During a recent visit to Tokyo I had occasion to speak
with a number of top air force officers as well as civilians involved
in defense matters, and all made it clear that they feel Japan must
have F-22s.

More than two decades ago, at the inception of the program, I was the
chief systems engineer for the F-22 at Lockheed. That is to say that
I know a great deal more about it than one can read in the press.
There is no doubt that it is a very impressive airplane with no equal
in the world.

It is also an extraordinarily expensive airplane. The 50 aircraft
Japan needs would cost roughly $10 billion to buy (with spares and
support equipment), and would have high ongoing operating costs. It
is likely that any aircraft needing major repair or modification
would have to be shipped back to the United States.

I am convinced that Japan can get fully equivalent capabilities in
the areas of its needs at lower overall cost by other routes. I
recognize that Japanese do not like to be told what they need by
outsiders, but for the United States to encourage Japan to buy F-22s
would be like encouraging a good friend to drink lots of alcohol
before he sets out to drive home.



----------
William D. O'Neil
w.d.oneil@pobox.com
"http://www.analysis.williamdoneil.com/">http://www.analysis.williamdoneil.com/ 703.256.4146 or 703.256.0066